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dparker
Forum Admin


888 Posts

Posted - 11/08/2018 :  11:20:06  Show Profile  Visit dparker's Homepage  Reply with Quote
Something I have done for well over twenty years is use computer generated power ratings to predict the outcomes of high school and college games. Over those years I have tweaked the formulas to arrive at something I think is reasonably accurate in determining which teams are the strongest in the state.

I wrote the programs and formulas many years ago and have used them the past dozen seasons in trying to come up with something I think really works.

I am very interested in your thoughts and whether you would like to see these each week next season. It is something that the Georgia site has done for years.

A link is located on the homepage for this week's games.







David Parker
Administrator
AHSFHS.org

TheMUBM
Starting Member

5 Posts

Posted - 11/08/2018 :  12:30:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I enjoy this type of thing. I am just curious how this works.

Like you have

Mars Hill vs Marion County -26. Are you saying Mars Hill is a 26 point favorite or Marion County? I assume Mars Hill, but the way it is written, I am not so sure.
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dparker
Forum Admin

888 Posts

Posted - 11/08/2018 :  13:23:18  Show Profile  Visit dparker's Homepage  Reply with Quote
That is correct. Mars Hill is favored over Marion County by 26 points.
Thanks



David Parker
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AHSFHS.org
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svmounties
AHSFHS Member

1138 Posts

Posted - 11/08/2018 :  16:59:54  Show Profile  Visit svmounties's Homepage  Reply with Quote
I would like to see them every week. I always enjoy looking at predictions of games I'm interested in. Don't worry about what visitors think about it. Just post a disclaimer as you have on the link explaining how the predictions are tabulated, and it's all in fun anyway. Everyone's not going to agree with what comes out of it, but if they have an explanation as to how it came about, and that it's not just a person's opinion, then that should be fine.

________________________________________________________________________

Shane Paschal
Shades Valley High School
Class of 1986
Go Mounties !
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GiglnTiger
AHSFHS Master Researcher

72 Posts

Posted - 11/08/2018 :  22:27:34  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I love it! I picked out some of the better games in 1A-3A and did my formula and compared it with yours and I was 3 points under than yours on majority. My formula had the same spread for NSM beating Ranburne. Granted my formula doesn?t add in a few points extra for home field advantage / teams traveling at great distances. So if I factored that in then we?d be pretty dang close.

Randolph County Tigers

2003 Class 2A State Champions

2017 Class 3A State Runner-Ups, 1998 Class 3A State Runner-Ups,
1984 Class 3A State Runner-Ups, 1979 Class 2A State Runner-Ups
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TheMUBM
Starting Member

5 Posts

Posted - 11/09/2018 :  08:15:47  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
While we were both right, your computer generated spread was a lot more accurate than my prediction for Colbert County & Tarrant.
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WCGuru1
Starting Member

7 Posts

Posted - 11/09/2018 :  08:48:19  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
didn't See Winston County vs Red Bay 2A
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dparker
Forum Admin

888 Posts

Posted - 11/09/2018 :  09:04:17  Show Profile  Visit dparker's Homepage  Reply with Quote
Winston County and Red Bay was under 3A but I got it corrected now. It is still very much a work in progress.




David Parker
Administrator
AHSFHS.org
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dparker
Forum Admin

888 Posts

Posted - 11/09/2018 :  09:25:47  Show Profile  Visit dparker's Homepage  Reply with Quote
I put this together to show the current power ratings for all teams. It is also a work in progress so bear with me.
The response is overwhelming to say the least. My email is getting blownup with fans wanting more of the power ratings so I will get to work and produce some really cool things for next season.

I will also post more for this year and the past few seasons very soon. Look for it here.

Here is a link to every team
http://www.ahsfhs.org/computer%20rankings/regionweek.asp



David Parker
Administrator
AHSFHS.org
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