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kodyaufan2
AHSFHS Forum Superstar
254 Posts |
 Posted - 10/26/2022 : 11:14:20
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7A: Prattville vs Central Phenix City
Every playoff spot in 7A is locked in except for the four from Region 2. Central will be the 1 seed with a win, although a loss likely gives the Region title to Auburn. But I think the even bigger story is the fact that there could be up to a 4-way tie for the last two spots if Prattville pulls off this upset. Opelika, despite beating Central early in the year, can't win any of the tiebreakers, and therefore is eliminated. Prattville would be in via any of the tiebreaker scenarios, so they just win. They've beaten Opelika and took Auburn to the wire, so this could be a dangerous team now that they're desperate.
Pick: Central wins 35-27
6A: Gardendale vs Hueytown
The entire 6A bracket is already set, so there are no playoff implications here, but these are two teams expecting to make deep runs. Games like this are tough to pick in the final week, cause there's always a chance that one or both teams decide to rest most of their key players. I'll pick it as if both teams play their starters the whole game, although I doubt that's what happens. One thing that you can expect from this one, though, is points, and a lot of them. Hueytown leads 6A in scoring, and Gardendale is just outside the top 10.
Pick: Gardendale wins 47-34
5A: UMS-Wright vs Williamson
The 4 seed in this region is the lone playoff spot still up for grabs in 5A, and Williamson currently holds it. There could technically be a 3-way tie, but Vigor can't win any of the tiebreakers, so it's between Williamson and B.C. Rain, who plays Gulf Shores. Once again, it's hard to predict the outcomes, because both UMS and Gulf Shores are locked into their playoff spots, so there isn't a lot of incentive to play their starters the whole game. The only way Williamson doesn't make it in is if they lose and B.C. Rain wins.
Pick: UMS-Wright wins 17-6
4A: Northside vs Sipsey Valley
I'm picking this game strictly for the playoff implications. There is a 3-way tie between Sipsey Valley, Hale County, and Montevallo for the 4 seed in Region 3. Montevallo can't win any tiebreakers, so they're out. Hale County beat Sipsey Valley, so the only way Sipsey Valley can get in is if their non-region victories are over teams with more combined wins than Hale County's non-region victories. Hale County is unlikely to beat Gordo, so that puts everything on Sipsey Valley. If they can upset Northside, they're in. Lose, and it's out of their hands.
Pick: Northside wins 27-14
3A: Pike County vs Houston Academy
There are 3 teams still at play for two playoff spots in Region 2, Pike County, Straughn, and Providence Christian. The last two play each other this week. I'll keep the scenarios simple. Pike County will be in the playoffs no matter what. The only way Providence Christian can get in is with a win over Straughn and a Pike County win over Houston Academy. Houston Academy is in the awkward position of deciding whether to play their starters and preserve an undefeated season at the risk of injuries, or rest their starters for the playoffs.
Pick: Houston Academy wins 42-17
2A: Winston County vs Falkville
Here we go again. Region 5 has two playoff spots available and three teams left vying for it. All three face solid opponents this week, too--Sulligent plays Colbert County and Lamar County plays Winfield. Lamar County is trailing in the tiebreaker, so they know they have to win. There's too many variables for me to explain here, so I'll just give my predictions. I think Sulligent is a little better than Colbert County anyway, so I'll take them to win. Even with little to play for, I still expect Winfield to beat Lamar County. Finally, I think Winston County beats Falkville and will be the strongest 3 seed in 2A. Oddly enough, the 4 seed is arguably more desirable in this region than the 3 seed, as the 3 seed would face Fyffe in the second round.
Pick: Winston County wins 34-13
1A: Pickens County vs Marion County
Finally, we have a matchup where the playoff implications begin and end with what happens on the field in this game. It's simple--the winner is the 2 seed and will host their 1st round game, and the loser is the 3 seed and hits the road for the 1st round. It's hard to find much to separate these teams, but Pickens County did take region champs Lynn to overtime. Both teams are good enough to make some noise in the postseason.
Pick: Pickens County wins 36-26 |
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dawgfan09
Forum Member
30 Posts |
Posted - 10/26/2022 : 15:03:22
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Northside is not that good this year. They've already lost at home by double digits twice (dora & Haleyville) and only beat a very bad Cordova team by 1 because of missed extra points
bc |
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UNA2004
AHSFHS Forum Member
78 Posts |
Posted - 10/26/2022 : 19:02:57
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On the Winston County, Sulligent, and Lamar County scenario.
If Lamar County loses and it goes down to Winston County and Sulligent, wouldn?t Sulligent be 3rd based off head to head and Winston County would get 4th? Could you explain how the tie breaker would work?
Go Lions |
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GiglnTiger
AHSFHS Forum Superstar
375 Posts |
Posted - 10/26/2022 : 21:19:27
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quote:
Originally posted by UNA2004
On the Winston County, Sulligent, and Lamar County scenario.
If Lamar County loses and it goes down to Winston County and Sulligent, wouldn?t Sulligent be 3rd based off head to head and Winston County would get 4th? Could you explain how the tie breaker would work?
Go Lions
1. *Aliceville (6-0) ? LOCKED
2. *Tuscaloosa Academy (5-1) ? LOCKED
3. Winston County (3-3) ? LOW
4. Lamar County (3-3) ? LOW
Others that could grab a spot: Sulligent (3-3)
There is a three-way tie between Lamar County, Sulligent and Winston County that will go to non-region games.
The current standings between them:
Winston County ? 8 (can add up to 8 more)
Sulligent ? 7 (can add up to 7 more)
Lamar County ? 6 (can add up to 10 more)
They all still have a non-region game left, so we have to let this play out.
Jeremy Wortham
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Randolph County Tigers
2003 Class 2A State Champions
2017 Class 3A State Runner-Ups, 1998 Class 3A State Runner-Ups,
1984 Class 3A State Runner-Ups, 1979 Class 2A State Runner-Ups |
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TheMUBM
AHSFHS Moderator
624 Posts |
Posted - 10/27/2022 : 09:39:55
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Last Week 2-1 Season: 19-8
Rogers @ Lexington
Both teams are playoff bound. Lexington has secured the #1 seed in 2A region 8, while Rogers awaits to find if they are going to be 3rd or 4th in 4A R7. Rogers definitely has the size and physicality here, but Lexington has the speed. Rogers has struggled with teams with outside speed this year, but they have more to play for here. This should be a good one.
Prediction: Lexington 22 Rogers 17
Linden @ Mars Hill
Mars Hill comes in securing the #1 seed in 3A Region 8 and having only one loss on the season. A last second loss to 6A Cullman. Linden has sewn up the #1 seed in 1A Region 3 and has sailed to a perfect record. I always admire Mars Hill for stepping up classifications and playing tough teams, got to have the same admiration for Linden in this case. Mars Hill has has a lot of players banged up, but they are loaded with size and speed all over the field. As good as I think Linden is and a threat to win 1A, this may be too tall of a task.
Prediction: Mars Hill 42 Linden 21
Brooks @ Lauderdale County
Lauderdale County has secured the #2 seed in 3A Region 8, while Brooks has to have a lot of things fall their way to make the playoffs. Losing to the Tigers would automatically put them out. LCHS would love nothing more than to spoil Brooks season and end all doubt. Brooks has improved dramatically throughout the year and LCHS has been better than I think most would have thought coming into the season. I think with Brooks playing better, and LCHS star running back being banged up (may even be out), this doesn't set up well for LCHS. Brooks in a good one, then they have to wait to hope the other dominos fall or forever have that Central Florence loss stuck in their head.
Prediction: Brooks 31 LCHS 21 |
Edited by - TheMUBM on 10/27/2022 09:41:16 |
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kodyaufan2
AHSFHS Forum Superstar
254 Posts |
Posted - 10/27/2022 : 11:18:20
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quote:
Originally posted by UNA2004
On the Winston County, Sulligent, and Lamar County scenario.
If Lamar County loses and it goes down to Winston County and Sulligent, wouldn?t Sulligent be 3rd based off head to head and Winston County would get 4th? Could you explain how the tie breaker would work?
Go Lions
I know it has already been posted here, but I'll reiterate it once more in case there's still any questions.
Since this region is finished with region play, there's a guaranteed 3-way tie for 3rd-5th. Head-to-head results no longer matter because each team went 1-1 against the other two. That's why it comes down to non-region games.
I believe the only way head-to-head results between these teams could come back into play would be if, say, Lamar County loses and doesn't add any more non-region wins, thus remaining last in the tiebreaker. But if Winston County and Sulligent were to both end up with the same number of non-region wins, then that would still leave those two teams in a tie for 3rd place. At that point, it would fall back to the head-to-head result between those two.
So basically, if any two of these three teams end up tied in number of non-region wins, then whoever won head-to-head between those two teams will win the tiebreaker. If none of the three finish with the same number of non-region wins, then they will just be seeded in order from most non-region wins to fewest.
I know that's a lot of information, and I'm not 100% certain I said all of that correctly, so feel free to correct me if I got anything wrong. |
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TheMUBM
AHSFHS Moderator
624 Posts |
Posted - 10/27/2022 : 12:20:18
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quote:
So basically, if any two of these three teams end up tied in number of non-region wins, then whoever won head-to-head between those two teams will win the tiebreaker. If none of the three finish with the same number of non-region wins, then they will just be seeded in order from most non-region wins to fewest.
That's sort of right. Once three teams finished tied, like in the scenario you presented, and all are 1-1 against each other and have lost to same region teams, and beaten the same regions teams, it does go to non-region win tiebreakers (2 classes below up to classes above).
The team that has the most will be seeded highest, then the other two teams revert back to head to head. If two teams tie with non region wins, then those two teams are then measured head to head, and the loser then is measured head to head with the odd team out. I will give you a for instance.
As a Brooks fan, I follow them closely. Brooks, Rogers and Central Florence are all in this same predicament. Tied 3rd through 5th with having beaten all the bottom teams and all having lost to West Morgan and Deshler. Brooks lost to Central Florence, Central Florence lost to Rogers, and Rogers lost to Brooks, so there is the 1-1 tie.
Now it reverts to non region wins (two classes below up to classes above). Should some things fall a certain way, then Brooks and Rogers could wind up with 12 non region wins apiece, while Central is well below that. So for 3rd it would be Brooks v. Rogers head to head, which Brooks won. Then for 4th it would revert to Central v Rogers head to head which Rogers won.
So it would be Brooks 3rd, Rogers 4th. If things don't fall that way and Rogers picks up 1 more win (which is all they need), or Brooks loses or Colbert County loses to Sulligent, then Rogers would be 3rd and 4th would be head to head between Brooks and Central, which Central won and they'd be 4th.
So Rogers is in regardless, they are just playing for seeding. Central and Brooks are both needing some things to fall their way. |
Edited by - TheMUBM on 10/27/2022 12:46:48 |
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