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BrianYoung
AHSFHS Forum Member
83 Posts |
 Posted - 09/29/2025 : 11:05:33
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or point spread prediction.
Does the algorithm take into account the running clock if agreed by coaches? Great deal of time and scoring opportunity differences if implemented or not during a game. |
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Bandkid15
Forum Member<
58 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2025 : 12:37:56
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| I assume this is in correlation to the Williamson vs. Murphy game, and big blowouts in general? |
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JEREF
Forum Member<
25 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2025 : 13:22:00
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quote:
Originally posted by BrianYoung
or point spread prediction.
Does the algorithm take into account the running clock if agreed by coaches? Great deal of time and scoring opportunity differences if implemented or not during a game.
Good question. I have never considered that.
If score is taken into consideration in a formula, then the formula is inherently flawed if running clocks and/or shortened quarters are excluded. Of course, that's nearly impossible to program into a formula since there are a million variations. For instance, I heard the Williamson v Murphy game was something like 70-0 at half, and the second half for Williamson featured basically the freshmen team. How can that possibly be quantified? |
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dparker
Forum Admin
1508 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2025 : 14:22:29
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A running clock becomes totally irrelevant in the AHSFHS Power Ratings for one simple reason.
What is the one common thing about all games where there is a running clock in the second half of the game? The game is a blowout. There is never a running clock in a close game.
So in the case of the Williamson and Murphy game the power ratings had Williamson as a 48 point favorite. As is the case with every game there is a max number of points a team can gain or lose in the Power Ratings for each contest.
Williamson reached that magical maximum number as any team with a running clock would. So in reality if the score was 80-0 or 100-0 or 125-0 it would make no difference.
There is no perfect system for Power Ratings but I do believe we have something very close. There are too many variables to be perfect. Do I always agree with the Power Ratings. Absolutely not. But they take into account more than what we saw the previous week or most recently.
It is all done in fun and for conversation. I would love to see what someone else has produced with an actual algorithm and set of formulas that works perfectly. I've used the same formulas for over 40 years and documented over 40 seasons with very minor adjustments along the way.
It's not perfect. It's just entertainment.
Thanks guys.
David Parker
Administrator
AHSFHS.org |
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dparker
Forum Admin
1508 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2025 : 16:00:37
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I wanted to add....
The reason I built in a maximum number of points a team can gain or lose in one week is because one game should not make or break a team especially at the high school level. We all know a game can get away from a team easily so there should be a buffer for those games so they do not destroy what a team has done in all their previous games.
We try to look at the overall picture instead of just a single game.
David Parker
Administrator
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BrianYoung
AHSFHS Forum Member
83 Posts |
Posted - 09/29/2025 : 21:56:33
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| Thanks for the explanation |
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JEREF
Forum Member<
25 Posts |
Posted - 09/30/2025 : 09:41:11
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Whatever the formula is, I think it's pretty good!
There is no way it can be perfect. I've seen a varsity game with 5min quarters in the second half, a running clock, and nothing but JV in for the winning team. I've also seen a team purposely throttle their offense down to the point of inefficiency, by running what amounts to pee-wee offense.
Now, if somehow Columbia sneaks into the top ten, then we might have something to discuss. |
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Power Ratings?
