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The best of the best in Alabama High
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2022 Weekly Predictions
Each week we will let you know how the Computer did and how many favorites won according to the AHSFHS Power Ratings. The Power Ratings are based upon past performance early in the season and will better reflect a team's strength as the football season progresses.
Last week the AHSFHS.org Power Ratings had a record of 100-14 (87.7%) predicting the outcome of the first round games. Two games were predicted to be even so we went 90-12 (88.2%) in the AHSAA games and 10-2 in the AISA. Nine of the games the computer missed were contests where the loser was favored by less than seven points.
Last week the Power Ratings had fourteen first round games where the predicted winner was a lower seed. The computer went 11-3 in those games. Not bad.
The biggest upset was Parker defeating Clay-Chalkville after entering the game as a 25 point underdog. Others included Geraldine (+23) beating Winfield 24-8, Colbert County (+11) beating J.B. Pennington 57-28 and W.S. Neal (+11) defeating Opp 27-13.
Sometimes an eye test is better than anything a computer will tell us. Hueytown has been on a tear recently but I am not sure they are 5 points better than Theodore. Is Arab six points better than Moody? Will Demopolis beat Faith Academy by four points? Other games I think may go differently that the Power Ratings predict are Maplesville over Leroy by 2 and Sweet Water over Elba by 4. I guess we will need to let the teams play and see how it goes.
A few close games are predicted this week. Decatur is a one point favorite over Gardendale. Gulf Shores is also a one point favorite over Central Clay County. Cherokee County over West Morgan by one. Etowah and Deshler is considered a push.
Remember that teams are rewarded for performing better than expected. So a team with a low rating losing to a team from a higher one will not be punished as much as a team losing to a team they are suppose to beat. Basically that means a team will move up by beating a team they are favored to beat by more than the predicted point spread. Another team will move up even if they lose, if they lose by less than the predicted spread.
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| Second Round Playoff Predictions |
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Great Moments in Alabama High School Football History
Thomasville scored 54 points against Gulf Shores in the first quarter of a game in 2003. They managed to hang on for an 81-14 win.
Thomasville scored 54 points against Gulf Shores in the first quarter of a game in 2003. They managed to hang on for an 81-14 win.
